The near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered in December 2024, and initial observations of its orbit suggested a potential impact with Earth in 2032.
The impact probability rose from 1.2% to 2.3%, then to 2.6%, peaking at 3.1% on 18 February 2025, before dropping to nearly 0% by the end of February.
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Subscribe to the NewsletterTo better assess the asteroid’s threat, NASA directed the James Webb Space Telescope toward YR4, revealing a new possibility—it might collide with Earth’s Moon instead.
Key data from Webb revised the asteroid’s estimated size from 131-295 feet (40-90 meters) down to 174-220 feet (53-67 meters)—roughly the height of a 10-storey building.
According to NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), the probability of YR4 striking the Moon on 22 December 2032 increased from 1.7% in late February 2025 to 3.8% by early April 2025, based on Webb and ground-based telescope data.
Still, the key takeaway is a 96.2% chance the asteroid will miss the Moon.
As often happens with potentially hazardous asteroids—similar to YR4’s earlier Earth impact predictions—the likelihood of collision may rise before eventually declining.
Even if YR4 were to hit the Moon, NASA confirms it would not alter the Moon’s orbit.
Soon, 2024 YR4 will be too distant for ground-based telescopes to track. It continues its journey around the Sun, with another close approach to Earth expected in 2023.
Meanwhile, Webb remains focused on the asteroid and will conduct further observations in late April or early May 2025, helping scientists refine the odds of a lunar impact.
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