Mathematician: There is a 13% chance humanity will fail to see out the 21st Century

As our civilization grows and technology advances, new threats are also emerging.

The emergence of new lethal weapons, the development of artificial intelligence and robotics, social stratification, lust for money and power, as well as the destruction of our planet and excess extraction of natural resources are just some of the most serious examples.

So it should not be surprising that scientists try to predict when our end will come and directly warn us about the potential destruction of humanity, reports

Dr. Fergus Simpson, a mathematician at the Institute of Cosmology at the University of Barcelona, ​​made his own calculations to estimate the risk of the demise of the human species.

The calculation is based on the Doomsday Argument, which it is claimed can predict the number of future members of the human species given an estimate of the total number of humans born so far.

According to Dr. Simpson’s calculations, around 100 billion people have already been born and a similar number will be born in the future before the human race expires.

Simpson estimated that each year there is over 0.2% chance of a global catastrophe and a 13% chance that humanity would fail to see out the 21st Century.

However, the mathematician’s predictions are quite optimistic compared to the visions of other researchers. For example, Sir Martin Rees, the British astronomer and cosmologist, predicts that the human species has only a 50% chance of surviving this century.

Dr. Fergus Simpson believes that humanity should urgently take action to mitigate global threats. In his opinion, we may not be able to avoid certain events, but we are certainly able to delay their occurrence.

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