By 2500, numerous areas on Earth, including important agricultural areas, will be dropped from the productive and technological spheres of life.
Nowadays, fertile soils can no longer be used for growing food, they will experience “severe heat stress”, which scientists now observe mainly in deserts. This is stated in a study published in the journal Global Change Biology.
But there is also good news: humanity can face such an unfavorable future for survival only if the problem of climate change in our time is totally ignored.
Scientists considered three scenarios for the future, simulating situations based on the actions of people in the next hundred years:
The first scenario – RCP2.6 – implies a high degree of human involvement in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving the climate on Earth;
The second scenario – RCP4.5 – takes into account a moderate global climate policy;
The third scenario – RCP6.0 (we described it above) – shows a realistic picture of the world with a low level of interest in climate problems.
“Regions that are currently experiencing periods of very high heat stress tend to be deserts, but also include the Indian subcontinent and the southeastern United States at certain times of the year.
“According to scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, most of the Earth will experience severe heat stress in the future, while by the end of the century problem areas will expand to zones with a more temperate climate, such as the Mediterranean,” the experts note, attaching a visual map of changes:
The total number of areas for growing major crops will be markedly reduced. In two out of three scenarios, the vegetation and the best cropland will be located at the poles of both hemispheres, with larger shifts predicted in the Northern Hemisphere.
“Our projections beyond 2100 show that without rapid and significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, vast areas of the Earth will change in such a way that their ability to support large-scale human activity will diminish,” the experts write.
They note that the long-term effects of the warming of the 21st century will be felt for centuries, even if future emissions are limited.